Ever more EU electricity flowing east as Moscow targets Ukrainian power grid
Ukranians face rolling blackouts in the depths of a bitter winter
Electricity exports from the EU to Ukraine have seen a sharp increase as the Kremlin intensifies attacks on energy infrastructure as temperature plummet to -15 °C.
On Tuesday, the whole of Ukraine was on red alert with electricity generators forced to shut down for up to 12 hours at a time, in the wake of a series of Russian strikes on Friday that further damaged the country’s already strained power grid. Such attacks on civilian infrastructure violate international humanitarian law and may constitute war crimes.
Europe has stepped in to fill the gap, highlighting the increasingly crucial role that cross-border electricity flows from neighbouring EU countries play in keeping the lights on in Ukraine.
“Their electricity imports went up significantly,” said Rouven Stubbe, an energy economist at the Berlin-based think tank Helmholtz-Zentrum.
By 14 January, the besieged country had imported a total of 500 gigawatt hours this year, he explained – roughly equivalent to the output of three gas power plants running at full tilt. Imports were three times higher than in October, he added.
Supply lines
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion almost four years ago, the EU has significantly boosted its ability to export power to Ukraine. In just one year, grid operators permitted a capacity of 2.45 GW, up from 2.1 GW the year prior.
However, Stubbe cautions, that capacity is rarely fully utilised – electricity flows reach the technical maximum just 10% of the time, he added. No explanation as to why the connection to Europe was being underutilised has been identified so far.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the role of EU electricity imports on Wednesday, while warning that the war-torn country faced an energy emergency.
“Work is also underway to significantly increase the volume of electricity imports into Ukraine,” he said. This will require efforts by by EU countries as well as Ukraine’s grid operator.
Boosting capacity
Poland ought to install electrical control devices – so-called FACTS (flexible AC transmission systems) – to redirect power flows into the country as soon as possible, which could allow another 0.5 GW in flows per hour, Green Deal Ukraina said.
While the capital Kyiv is now being hit hardest as tens of thousands of households are cut off from the grid for days at a time, data collected by the Green Deal Ukraina project showed every single district of the country was subject to rolling blackouts lasting between eight and 12 hours on 13 January.
On Thursday, the worrying state of the country’s energy system persisted. Grid operator Ukrenergo registered a further 4.5% drop in electricity use on the morning of 15 January amid the “forced application of stricter restrictions in certain regions”.