Electricity and gas supply in Ukraine: Winter 2025/26

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Since late October, Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy system have caused the previously manageable winter electricity supply situation to deteriorate rapidly. A reassessment of the security of supply is needed.

Our analysis rests on ever-shrinking and uncertain data: 

• Publication of official data is restricted, so we depend largely on long-term monitoring of Ukrainian news outlets and social-media sources. 
• The status of generators, the grid and transformers remains unclear; local outages may be worse than projected here if electricity cannot be transported within the country or from imports. 
• We are working to close these gaps, i.e by monitoring satellite data and collecting outage schedules.

We provide an overview of the power and gas infrastructure as of mid-November and a forecast of gas storage levels through the heating season, based on domestic production and expected import increases after the late-October destruction. Unconfirmed reports of a near-full restoration of gas production are not included.

Finally, we present expected power outages, using capacity data from mid-November 2025, assuming no further attacks and no countermeasures