Modelling the Electricity Deficit in Ukraine and Potential Policy Responses for the period June 2024 – May 2025

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In this paper, the team of the Green Deal Ukraïna Project at Helmholtz-Center Berlin tries to provide an objective and comprehensive picture of the current situation in terms of electricity balance. Moreover, different solutions to mitigate the severe deficit are tested in a system framework.

The purpose of this report is threefold:

1. On the basis of the modelling carried out, the authors want to make European policymakers and the  public more aware of the scale of the current deficit and thus urge them to take further security and,  above all, energy policy measures.
2. By analysing different possible technical options, the authors want to highlight that solutions are possible, give a sense of the order of required capacities and stimulate a discussion on prioritisation.
3. The ultimate aim is contribute to a discussion on minimising the consequences of power cuts for the Ukrainian population.