Sectoral export changes by 2035 under CBAM

What to expect from the start of the paid phase of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) next year?

Our recent study (https://lnkd.in/dutFvhqv) suggests that the overall macroeconomic impact of CBAM on Ukraine will be limited. Most sectors are only minimally affected — some even slightly positively. However, a small number of carbon-intensive industries are projected to face export losses by 2035. According to our model, exports from the Basic Materials sector — including products such as aluminium and cement — may decline by around 2%, while exports from the energy sector could fall by nearly 9%.

The loss of up to USD 300 million in export revenues in these two sectors is expected to be largely compensated by increased export revenues in other sectors.