Commercial electricity imports from EU to Ukraine by import route (November 2025 to April 2026)

Electricity imports from the EU played a crucial role in stabilising Ukraine’s power system during the winter of 2025/26, but their utilisation was strongly influenced by market design. Following the increase in day-ahead market price caps in mid-January 2026, imports rose sharply and frequently approached available cross-border capacity, highlighting their importance under conditions of generation shortages.

However, imports declined again toward the end of March and fell further after price caps were reduced on 1 April, despite continued system stress. This pattern suggests that price caps directly affect the economic incentives for cross-border trade and can limit imports even when physical capacity is available.

The figure illustrates a key structural issue: while interconnection capacity is not fully utilised in many hours, distorted price signals prevent electricity from flowing efficiently to where it is most needed. As a result, market design, alongside physical constraints, remains a critical factor shaping Ukraine’s energy security during wartime.