Ukraine is heading into another difficult winter.

Ukraine is heading into another difficult winter.

At the same time, climate projections from a recent report published by the Ministry of Economy and Environment of Ukraine point to a gradual shift in seasonal energy demand.

For 2021-2040, compared with the 1991-2020 baseline, the report projects:

• summer temperatures increasing by around 0.8-0.9°C;
• almost 15% fewer days with below-zero temperatures;
• around 27% more cooling degree days, from 147 to 186;
• around 8% fewer heating degree days, from 2,824 to 2,599.

The changes point to a gradual shift in seasonal energy demand: more electricity needed for cooling in summer, while average heating demand could decline as winters become milder.

At the same time, the report highlights risks to the energy system from heat, water availability and higher summer electricity demand.

They show why Ukraine’s energy planning needs to consider not only immediate winter security, butsp also how climate change could affect the system over the coming decades