Methane Emissions in Ukraine’s Energy Sector: Underestimated Challenge and Opportunity

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Methane is a short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gas.

When assessed using a 20-year global warming potential (GWP20), methane represents over half of Ukraine’s near-term climate impact.

Methane’s climate impact is defined by its short atmospheric lifetime and extremely high near-term warming power.

Although it remains in the atmosphere for only about a decade, methane is over 80 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year horizon.

This makes methane mitigation one of the fastest and most cost-effective climate measures available for Ukraine in the critical 2025–2045 window.

Methane accounts for approximately 27% of Ukraine’s total greenhouse gas emissions (63 Mt CO₂- eq in 2023 under GWP100), with the energy sector responsible for about 71% of national methane emissions.

Oil and gas operations represent the largest source, followed by coal mining and waste management.

While absolute methane emissions declined during 2022–2023 due to war-related disruptions, these reductions reflect economic contraction rather than structural mitigation and risk rebounding during post-war reconstruction.